近57年江苏沿海降水量演变特征分析.docVIP

近57年江苏沿海降水量演变特征分析 　　摘要：基于江苏沿海1957年-2013年逐月降水量序列资料，采用MannKendall法、滑动t检验、Morlet小波法分析了江苏沿海代表时段降水量变化趋势、突变点和周期特征。结果表明，近57年江苏沿海年、汛期、枯季降水量均呈不显著减少趋势，区域上则呈现北部减少、南部增加趋势;年、汛期、枯季降水量均未发生显著突变;各代表时段降水量变化具有13年左右的主周期，区域上震荡周期一致性较好;未来几年，年、汛期、枯季降水将有所增加。 　　关键词：降水量;演变特征;江苏沿海;MannKendall检验;滑动t检验;Morlet小波 　　中图分类号：TV125文献标志码：A文章编号： 　2015 　　Evolution characteristics of precipitation along the coastal area of Jiangsu Province in recent 57 years 　　ZHANG Yu，ZHONG Pingan，WAN Xinyu，CAO Minglin，MA Biao 　　（Collage of Hydrology and Water Resources，Hohai University，Nanjing 210098，China） 　　Abstract：Study of the evolution rule of precipitation along the coastal area of Jiangsu Province is of great significance for the development and construction of its coastal area as well as the allocation and management of water resources.Based on the monthly precipitation data along the coastal area of Jiangsu Province，the variation trend，mutation points，and periodicity of precipitation in the representative periods were analyzed using the MannKendall test，sliding t test，and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results showed that the annual precipitation and precipitation in the flood and dry seasons decrease significantly in recent 57 years;precipitation decreases in the north while increases in the south;precipitation has no abrupt change in the representative periods;precipitation variation has a primary periodicity of 13 years，and the regional variation periodicity is consistent;and precipitation in the representative periods will increase in the future. 　　Key words：precipitation;evolution characteristics;coastal area of Jiangsu Province;MannKendall test;sliding t test;Morlet wavelet analysis 　　降水量演变特征研究对于水资源配置和社会可持续发展具有重要意义。很多学者采用不同方法对我国各大流域、主要地区的降水量演变特征进行了多角度研究，取得了诸多研究成果。王兆礼等[1]利用GIS空间化技术分析了珠江流域降水量演变特征。杨明明等[2]研究了淮河流域主汛期降水。曾小凡等[3]对长江流域8个敏感区域年降水量演变规律进行了研究。李想等[4]分析了松花江流域和辽河流域降水演变规律。张皓和冯立平[5]则通过分析华北地区降水资料，研究其时空变化特征。姚慧明等[6]更是诊断了全中国降水量演变趋势，提出近期降水量新事实。 　　目前研究水文序列趋势分析常用的方法[