DECISIONMODELINGWITHMICROSOFTEXCEL.pptVIP

Fitting a Quadratic Function The method of least ________can be used with any number of independent variables and with any _________ form (not just linear). Suppose that we wish to fit a _________function of the form y = a0 + a1x + a2x2 to the previous data with the method of least squares. The goal is to select a0 , a1 , and a2 in order to __________the sum of squared deviations, which is now S i=1 5 (yi – [a0 + a1xi + a2xi2 ])2 Proceed by setting the partial ____________with respect to a0 , a1 , and a2 equal to______. This gives the equations 5a0 + (Sxi)a1 + (Sxi2 )a2 = Syi (Sxi)a0 + (Sxi2)a1 + (Sxi3)a2 = Sxiyi (Sxi2)a0 + (Sxi3)a1 + (Sxi4)a2 = Sxi2yi This is a simple set of three linear equations in three__________. Thus, the general name for this least squares curve fitting is “___________________.” The term _________comes from the fact that simultaneous linear equations are being solved. Solver will be used to find the coefficients in Excel. Consider the following worksheet: Now, to find the ____________values for the parameters (a0 , a1 , and a2) using________, first click on Tools – Solver. In the resulting Solver Parameter dialog, specify the following settings: Click Solve to solve the____________, nonlinear optimization model. In this model, the objective function is to minimize the sum of_______________. Here are the Solver results. The parameter values are: This formula calculates the sum of squared errors directly. * DECISION MODELING WITH MICROSOFT EXCEL Chapter 13 Copyright 2001 Prentice Hall Publishers and Ardith E. Baker Part 1 Many important decisions made by individuals and organizations crucially depend on an assessment of the_________. There are a few “____” sayings that illustrate the promise and frustration of forecasting: “It is difficult to_________, especially in regards to the future.” “It isn’t difficult to forecast, just to forecast___________.” “_______, if tortured enough, will confess to just about anything.” Fore