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* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Cumulative Default Rates (Asquith et. al.) Total issued Total defaulted Cumulative % of total default Issue Number Amount ($ millions) Number Amount ($ millions) Number Amount ($ millions) 1977 26 908 6 308 23.08 33.92 1978 51 1,442 17 494 33.33 34.26 1979 41 1,263 12 312 29.27 24.70 1980 37 1,223 12 337 32.43 27.56 1981 24 1,240 4 260 16.67 20.97 1982 41 2,490 11 646 26.83 25.94 1983 74 6,003 16 1,153 21.62 19.21 1984 102 11,552 15 1,084 14.71 9.38 1985 145 14,463 10 510 6.90 3.53 1986 200 30,949 17 2,519 8.50 8.14 Total 741 71,533 120 7,623 All Rights Reserved. ? May not be reproduced, copied, or otherwise used without the express, written permission of Dr. Patrick Gaughan Barrie Wigmore-Goldman Sachs Study 1990 Interest Coverage by EBIT 1980: 1.99 1988: 0.71 Debt as a Percent of Net Tangible Assets 1980: 60% 1988: 202% Cash Flow as a Percent of Debt 1980: 17% 1988: 3% All Rights Reserved. ? May not be reproduced, copied, or otherwise used without the express, written permission of Dr. Patrick Gaughan Why Did the Junk Bond Market Collapse: Late 1980s Bankruptcy of LTV Had issued high amount of junk bonds Largest bankruptcy up to that time Decline of the stock market 1987 Regulation of failed SLs Forced them to dump their junk holdings (1989) Integrated resources defaulted in 1989 Company built on junk bonds Bankruptcy of Campeau/Federated Stores (1990) Collapse of the Junk Bond Market Hurt the ability of dealmakers to get bridge loans as their ability to refinance them later with permanent junk bond financing declined with the collapse of the junk bond market “Burning Mattress” transaction - 1989 Here First Boston could not sell enough junk bonds to take out the $475 million bridge loan it lent the dealmakers Almost brought down First Boston Figure 8.8 Growth of the Junk Bond Market 1980 - 2005 Source: Thomson Financial Securities
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