孙桂全-influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics.pptVIP

“第六届全国复杂网络会议”最佳学生论文答辩 Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics 孙桂全 中北大学理学院 合作者：靳祯 (中北大学) 刘权兴 (荷兰生态院) Amit Chakraborty (加州大学河滨分校) Bai-Lian Li (加州大学河滨分校) 背景 主要工作 结论 背 景 There are newly emerging and high fatal infectious diseases, such as SARS (Guan et al., 2003; Marra et al., 2003; Riley et al., 2003), the spread of H1N1 (Garten et al., 2009; Liu et al., 2009a; Smith et al., 2009), the H5N1 strain of avian influenza (Li et al., 2004; Shortridge et al., 1998; Ungchusak et al., 2005), and RABIES (Smith et al., 2002; Fabera et al., 2009). Epidemic spreading have been modeled by reaction–diffusion models (Li et al., 2008; Sun et al., 2007, 2008), and patch-structured models, which include meta-populations (Rossi et al., 2007), coupled-map lattices (Dorogovtsev et al., 2008; Shirley and Rushton, 2005) and demestructured populations (Newman, 2002). All these models are amenable to mathematical analysis, but these limit their applicability, in particular in evolutionary contexts. Extinction may occur where the infection rate is so small that there is insufficient transmission to keep the disease in its endemic state (Dykman et al., 2008; Keeling, 2004). It is natural to ask, whether the disease will persist if the infection rate is large enough. Several theoretical models have shown that migration of population is more stable (Rohani and Miramontes, 1995), which means that migration can promote the high density of the disease, and thus lead to the persistence of the disease. We will address the effect of the migration between two patches, especially to check that if migration may result in the extinction of the disease. 主要工作 Model S: susceptible; I: infected; E: empty. \beta: infection rate; d: death rate due to diease; b: birth rate. Rules (i) Initially, the populations ar