病害IPM7幻灯片.pptVIP

Prediction of the subsequent development of late blight and determining the need for spraying NW7d5d 3 3 4 5 6 6 4 4 Severity values during the last 7 days N N W 7d 7d 5d N W 7d 5d 5d 5d No. rain-favorable days during the last 7 days No spraylate blight warning7-day spraying schedule5-day spraying schedule Recommendation for action The disease pyramid grower pathogen environment host disease * 1.5 Prediction of disease outbreaks Introduction Principles of disease forecasting Forecasting the amount of initial inoculum Forecasting the rate of pathogen proliferation Forecasting host response Concluding remarks Why do we need to predict disease outbreaks?orWhat are the uses of disease forecasts ? For making strategic decisions Prediction of the risks involved in planting a certain crop. Deciding about the need to apply strategic control measures (soil treatment, planting a resistant cultivar, etc.) Time Disease intensity For making tactical decisions Deciding about the need to implement disease management measure ? The disease pyramid grower pathogen environment host The principles of disease forecasting are based on: The nature of the pathogen Effects of the environment The response of the host to infection Activities of the growers The disease pyramid grower pathogen environment host disease Time Disease severity (%) Monocyclic pathogens Time Disease severity (logit) Time Disease severity (%) Polycyclic pathogens Initial disease rate Monocyclic pathogens Complete only one disease cycle in a growing season (100 - y) QR dy dt Q = amount of initial inoculum R = infection efficacy of the inoculum y = disease intensity Prediction of a monocyclic pathogen that complete only one disease cycle in a growing season - indirect prediction Severe infections occur after moderate winters. Mild infections occur after cold winters. Average Temp. in December, January and February 0.7oC High probability for severe epidemic -1.1oC Low probability for severe epidemic Wilt di