病害IPM4.ppt

0 20 40 60 Discoloration (%, Z) 0 20 40 60 80 100 5 15 25 35 Wetness (%, W) Temperature (oC, T) Z=-37.48+6.21T-0.29T2+0.004T3+0.53W-0.002W2+0.006WT p0.0001; R2=0.774 Influence of wetness and temperature on cotton discoloration * 1.2 Basics of plant disease epidemiology and modeling Introduction The disease triangle Effects of the environment on the pathogen Effects of the host on the pathogen Disease development in time and space Concluding remarks Epidemiology: the science that deals with the dynamic relationships between hosts and their pathogens at the population level Disease progress curve: a plot that shows graphically how disease intensity changes over time Time Disease intensity Epidemic: a change in disease intensity over time dy dt How disease intensity is measured ? Disease incidence:The proportion of infected host units, out of the total units sampled Disease severity:The proportion of infected part (or area), in each of the sampled units 4/10*100=40% in percent (60+10+30+1)/10*100=10.1% 60 10 30 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 in percent, cm2, number, index... Plant life cycle Seed germination Seedling establishment Vegetative growth reproductive growth Seed formation Seed dissemination Plant and pathogen life cycles seed germination seedling establishment vegetative growth reproductive growth seed formation seed dissemination Monocyclic pathogens Complete only one disease cycle in a growing season The host is susceptible for a very short tine (smuts) The infection units do not disseminate within the same growing season (soil-borne pathogens) The environmental conditions are conducive for a short time The growth of the pathogen is slow Pathogens are monocyclic because: Monocyclic pathogens Complete only one disease cycle in a growing season (100 - y) QR dy dt Q = amount of initial inoculum R = infection efficacy of the inoculum y = disease severity Time Disease severity (%) Time Disease severity (logit) QR Logit = ln ( ) 100 100-y Polycycl