m13-uncertainty.pptVIP

Uncertainty Chapter 13 Outline Uncertainty Probability Syntax and Semantics Inference Independence and Bayes Rule Uncertainty Let action At = leave for airport t minutes before flight Will At get me there on time? Problems: partial observability (road state, other drivers plans, etc.) noisy sensors (traffic reports) uncertainty in action outcomes (flat tire, etc.) immense complexity of modeling and predicting traffic Hence a purely logical approach either risks falsehood: “A25 will get me there on time”, or leads to conclusions that are too weak for decision making: “A25 will get me there on time if theres no accident on the bridge and it doesnt rain and my tires remain intact etc etc.” (A1440 might reasonably be said to get me there on time but Id have to stay overnight in the airport …) Methods for handling uncertainty Default or nonmonotonic logic: Assume my car does not have a flat tire Assume A25 works unless contradicted by evidence Issues: What assumptions are reasonable? How to handle contradiction? Rules with fudge factors: A25 |→0.3 get there on time Sprinkler |→ 0.99 WetGrass WetGrass |→ 0.7 Rain Issues: Problems with combination, e.g., Sprinkler causes Rain?? Probability Model agents degree of belief Given the available evidence, A25 will get me there on time with probability 0.04 Probability Probabilistic assertions summarize effects of laziness: failure to enumerate exceptions, qualifications, etc. ignorance: lack of relevant facts, initial conditions, etc. Subjective probability: Probabilities relate propositions to agents own state of knowledge e.g., P(A25 | no reported accidents) = 0.06 These are not assertions about the world Probabilities of propositions change with new evidence: e.g., P(A25 | no reported accidents, 5 a.m.) = 0.15 Making decisions under uncertainty Suppose I believe the following: P(A25 gets me there on time | …) = 0.04 P(A90 gets me there on time | …) = 0.70 P(A120 gets me there on time