1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识_夏智宏.docxVIP

J． Lake Sci．( 湖泊科学) ，2014，26( 4) : 515-521 http: //www． jlakes． org． E-mail: jlakes@niglas． ac．cn2014 by Journal of Lake Sciences1990s 以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识*夏智宏，刘 敏，王 苗，王 凯，秦鹏程( 武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074)摘 要: 为针对性地提出洪湖流域水资源适应与应对气候变化和人类活动影响的措施，保护洪湖流域生态资源，促进其 可持续发展，采取分布式水文模型 SWAT 定量辨识了 1990s 流域城镇快速发展以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域地表 径流的影响程度． 结果表明: 近 20 年来，人类活动是洪湖流域地表径流减少的主要原因，其影响量占径流减少量的63． 72% ，气候变化的影响占 36． 28% ． 但不同阶段人类活动与气候变化对流域径流影响的程度不同，1990s 气候变化对流 域径流的影响量高于人类活动，2000s 气候变化对流域径流的影响量低于人类活动，近 20 年来的水土保持措施已经发挥 了较好的径流调节和保水效益．关键词: SWAT 模型; 气候变化; 人类活动; 洪湖流域; 径流Quantitative identification of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff inLake Honghu basin since 1990sXIA Zhihong，LIU Min，WANG Miao，WANG Kai ＆ QIN Pengcheng( Wuhan Ｒegional Climate Center，Wuhan 430074，P． Ｒ． China)Abstract: In order to propose the measures of adaptation and response to the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff in Lake Honghu basin，to protect the ecological resources of Lake Honghu basin，and to promote its sustainable development，this paper used SWAT model to quantitatively identify the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff in Lake Honghu basin since 1990s． The results show: in recent 20 years，human activity is the main reason for the reduction of runoff in Lake Honghu wetland，its contribution to the reduction of runoff is 63． 72% ，with a contribution of 36． 28% from climate change． The level of influence on runoff change in Lake Honghu Basin varies in different stages，with a higher influence of climate change in 1990s but a higher influence of human activity in 2000s． The measures of water and soil conservation have generated the benefits of runoff ad-justment and water conservation in recent 20 years．Keywords: SWAT model; climate change; human activity; Lake Honghu basin; runoff随着全球气候变化和人类活动影响的加剧，水资源短缺和环境恶化已经成为世界性的问题，是当前人 类面临的严峻挑战之一［1］． 对洪湖流域而言，近 50 年来，年平均气温呈极显著的上升趋势; 年降水量呈缓慢 增加趋势，但时空分布不均; 春、夏、冬季和年蒸发量均呈上升趋势; 极端旱涝事件交替转换周期缩至 4 年左［2］，右． 人类活动同样显著影响着洪湖流域水资源与生态环境 1950s 中期