2、我国应急管理的提出-WMO.pptVIP

Climate Variability and Weather Disasters —Awareness of the Changing Climate Ms. JIAO Meiyan Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation China Meteorological Administration December, 7 2007. Geneva Major Weather Disasters in China( in Percentage) Trend of the cold surge occurrences during 1961-2005 Drought Frequency (1961-2006) in China Annual acreage of the crop suffered from the drought in China during 1951-2006 Annual Flooding Frequency (1961-2006) Major typhoon tracks for China * Outline: Weather Disasters in China Climate Variability (in terms of temperature, precipitation) and the Impact Cases of Extreme Events Typhoon Rananim in 2004 lasting 108 hours The Distribution of Meteorological Disasters in China Weather Disasters in China, in terms of Frequency, Variety and Severity. Drought Flooding TCs and Hail Others The Losses by Meteorological Disasters Losses per year: 178 billion RMB Death per year: 4427 death Economic Losses in Portion of GDP: 1%-3% The Warmest Climate Normal temp. 10.8℃ 12.1℃ Monthly Mean Temperature Variations in China 1951-2006 annual mean temperature anomaly and that of the wintertime, both relative to the mean of 1961-1990. The whole year Wintertime (DJF) Decrease Increase Annual hot days (Tmax35oC) in China during 1961-2006 Days More than 70% Acreage (!04 Hectare) Suffered from the drought and with the reduction of the crop production Influenced by the drought Impact on the Agriculture Reduction (104 ton) Reduction in grain production in China due to the droughts Annual mean Precip. (mm) (1971-2000) Change (percentage) in annual mean Precip. During 1957-2006 Trend of Precipitation Reduced by 60% Trend of the heavy or extreme rainfall occurrence IPCC AR4, 2007 ＋：increase －：decrease Trends in the heavy rainfall days in the mainland of China in recent 50 Yrs Increase significantly decrease significantly Increase decrease Trend of the heavy rainfall in China Rainy days with R50mm 54 69 98,99 80