香港經濟及勞工市場近況及近期展望-經濟分析及方便營商處.pptVIP

Recent Situation of the Overall Economy and the Labour Market and Near-term Outlook  香港經濟及勞工市場近況及近期展望 油價高企對經濟的影響Impacts of high oil prices on the economy 直接影響應不致太嚴重 Direct impact should not be significant 但更為關注的是對本港貿易造成的間接影響 but indirect impacts stemming from the trade front 以及可能對金融市場造成的波動。 and potential financial market volatility of more concern 經濟分析及方便營商處估計原油價格若每桶持續上升10 美元，在首年會令本地生產總值增長率減少0.6個百分點及令綜合消費物價指數上升0.2個百分點 The EABFU estimates that a US$10/barrel permanent increase in oil prices will knock down Hong Kong’s GDP growth by 0.6 of a percentage point and lift CCPI by 0.2 of a percentage point in the first year of incidence 短期經濟展望Near-term economic outlook 香港經濟在本年餘下時間的前景依然樂觀 The outlook for the Hong Kong economy in the rest of this year remains favourable 全球經濟依然向好 the global economy continues to cruise ahead well 油價急升的影響迄今仍頗為有限 impact of the surge in oil prices has been rather contained 香港迪士尼樂園在九月開幕應可刺激訪港旅遊業的發展 the opening of the Hong Kong Disneyland in September should render a boost to inbound tourism 短期經濟展望 (續)Near-term economic outlook (Cont’d) 就業人數在短期內很可能進一步上升 Further increase in employment seems highly likely in the near term. 預料本地消費物價通脹在接近本年年底時會進一步攀升。不過，本地價格壓力預期仍然會受控。 Consumer price inflation is expected to climb up further towards the end of this year, but on the whole, local price pressures are expected to be well contained. 外圍方面的一些風險因素Some downside risks on the external front 原油價格持續攀升 Sustained surge in crude oil prices 美國加息的步伐 The pace of interest rate upturn in the US 美國住屋市場可能降溫 Possible relapse in the US housing market * Overall labour earnings in the private sector, as measured by payroll per person engaged, rose by 3.6% in money terms or 3.0% in real terms in H1 2005, reversing the general downtrend over the preceding three years. Long-term unemployment fell noticeably. Number dropped to 59 000 in Jun-Aug, from the peak of 92 900 two years ago. Proportion of long-term unemployed to total unemployed shrank to 27.2% i