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计量经济学期末论文 我国居民消费水平的影响因素的实证分析 课程名称 计量经济学 授课教师 学 院 专 业 学 号 学生姓名 电 话 邮 箱 二 ○ 一五 年 十二月 我国居民消费水平的影响因素的实证分析 【摘 要】 本文利用我国1985年到2014年的统计数字，建立了我国居民消费水平的影响因素分析模型，对我国的居民消费水平进行了实证分析。其中包含了多重共线检验、异方差检验以及自相关检验，通过线性回归模型与非线性回归模型的对比，最终选择了多元线性回归模型。对该模型进行分析得出各种因素得出各种因素对我国消费居民水平的影响程度。研究结果表明在其他因素保持不变的情况下，当人均国民生产总值增加1单位，我国居民消费水平增加0.115单位；农村居民人均可支配收入增加1单位时，我国居民消费水平增加1.260单位。最后对如何提高我国居民消费水平提出了一些建议。本文的创新之处在于两模型的对比，并选取适合的最优的计量经济学模型。 【关键词】 居民消费水平；影响因素；多元回归；实证分析；政策建议 An empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the consumption level of Chinese Residents Abstract: This paper use statistics from 1985 to 2014 derived from National?Bureau?of?Statistics?of?the?Peoples?Republic?of?China to build an analysis model. It is built on the factors affecting the consumption level of residents in our country and carries out an empirical analysis of Chinas consumption level of residents. This model contains multiple collinear test, test for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation test. Based on the specific statistics, a linear regression model and nonlinear regression model are analyzed by comparison. Finally, chooses the multiple linear regression model. Then, the model is used to make analysis and the degree of influence of various factors on the level of consumption in our country is obtained. The results show: when other factors keep constant, the per capita GNP increases by 1 unit, Chinas consumption level of residents increased 0.115 unit. The same, when other variables are not changed, rural residents per capita disposable income increased by 1 unit, Chinas consumption level of residents increased 126 units. The end, it puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the consumption level of Chinese residents. The innovation of this paper lies in the comparison of the two models, and select the appropriate econometric model. Key words: Resident