众包众筹的深度介绍.pptxVIP

韦俊龙众包Crowdsourcing目录 什么是众包众包的特点众包的优势什么是众包定义：一个公司或机构把过去由员工执行的工作任 务，以自由自愿的形式外包给非特定的（而且通常是大型的）大众网络的做法。众包的任务通常由个人来承担，但如果涉及到需要多人协作完成的任务，也有可能以依靠开源的个体生产的形式出现模式：发包方、接包方和中介机构本质：利用群体多样性整合群体智慧、降低偏差众包模式1．发包方发包方通常是企业或者拥有工作任务需要解决的个人。对于发包方来说，其发布任务的方式有两种：一种是在公司网站上直接发布，以悬赏的方式吸引众多的网民来参与解决问题；另外一种方式，就是通过中介机构，通常是网站社区协会等，发包方与新型网络签订合约。2．接包方接包方就是数量众多的互联网用户，在中国有一个特定的新名称，叫威客。他们既可以是专业人士，也可以是非专业的兴趣爱好者。3．中介机构中介机构是沟通发包方和接包方的桥梁。降低偏差Diversity统计上来说，群体偏差总是小于等于平均偏差众包的特点第一，众包是对外包的颠覆。第二，众包蕴含著“携手用户协同创新”的理念。第三，众包延伸了创新边界，借社会资源为己所用。第四，在众包中，“草根”的创新愈发成为主流。众包的优势预测市场解决问题驱动创新预测市场多样性的预测市场定理群体偏差=平均偏差– 多样性多样性=精确性预测市场introductionPrediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. For example, a prediction market security might reward a dollar if a particular candidate is elected, such that an individual who thinks the candidate had a 70% chance of being elected should be willing to pay up to 70 cents for such a security.预测市场IntroductionPeople who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants预测市场Intrade预测市场HSX预测市场HPPrediction market forecasts are statistically significantly better than official forecasts.Only 22 participants on average. 预测市场Gallup解决问题驱动创新视角问题的多方面的特征预示着解决方案的多样性我们往往只考虑某些特征，从而决定了我们个体视角的局限群体的多元差异带来视角的多样性解决问题驱动创新视角 想像解决问题，就是寻找问题的全局最优解 解决问题驱动创新视角找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角解决问题驱动创新视角找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角解决问题驱动创新视角Hiring people to solve a hard problem1,000 applicants take a test to measure their individual abilitiesScores range from 60% to 90%Should y