Predictive Modeling for Property-Casualty Insurance.pptVIP

Predictive Modeling for Property-Casualty Insurance James Guszcza, FCAS, MAAA Peter Wu, FCAS, MAAA SoCal Actuarial Club LAX September 22, 2004 Predictive Modeling: 3 Levels of Discussion Strategy Profitable growth Retain most profitable policyholders Methodology Model design (actuarial) Modeling process Technique GLM vs. decision trees vs. neural nets… Methodology vs Technique How does data mining need actuarial science? Variable creation Model design Model evaluation How does actuarial science need data mining? Advances in computing, modeling techniques Ideas from other fields can be a