月度策略(8月第1期).docVIP

  installation, and Unit main plant equipment and piping insulation, chemical water system tank tank production and pouring paint, structure in coal handling system of equipment and piping. Is in the process of implementation of the implementing regulations for quality and technology quality, inspection and acceptance criteria developed in the installation, and Unit main plant equipment and piping insulation, chemical water system tank tank production and pouring paint, structure in coal handling system of equipment and piping. Is in the process of implementation of the implementing regulations for quality and technology quality, inspection and acceptance criteria developed in the4 installation, and Unit main plant equipment and piping insulation, chemical water system tank tank production and pouring paint, structure in coal handling system of equipment and piping. Is in the process of implementation of the implementing regulations for quality and technology quality, inspection and acceptance criteria developed in the 2010年8月 大消费时代呼之欲出 基本判断 宏观背景继续按我们当初的设想运行：1、经济增速回落好于市场当初的预期，经济增速回落而非经济二次探底的观点已被市场广泛接受；2、政策基调转向预期开始逐步兑现，宏观调控政策难以大幅度紧缩，结构调整政策中刺激消费和新兴产业政策陆续出台。这会推动市场两条腿走路，一是周期性行业在前期最坏预期下的估值修复，这会稳定指数并带来一定赚钱效应；二是结构调整中对刺激内需的大力度推动，这会给市场带来持续的热点。我们对消费的一再强调虽然提前市场，但后续投资者要逐渐习惯铺天盖地的消费轰炸。尽管全球经济二次探底的可能性很小，但投资者对全球经济复苏的复杂性仍要有充分的心理准备，整个经济复苏呈现U型的可能性非常大，周期性行业的上涨空间会远远小于结构调整受益的大消费和新兴产业等行业。未来投资的两条主线仍旧是：1、结构调整受益的大消费和新兴产业；2、通胀受益行业。其中通胀受益行业会随着美元价值的变化和经济复苏态势的变化在中短期有所反复，但已应以长期视角重点跟踪。资金方面，信贷控制有逐步放松迹象，M1M2剪刀差在低位逐步稳定，资金状况推动市场反转的可能性较小，但即使考虑银行业再融资压力，整体资金状况仍能达到弱平衡。外围方面，美经济数据显示其经济复苏进程仍缓慢，但欧洲经济状况开始缓解，对市场压力减轻；但未来欧美主要经济体化解主权债务风险的努力将延长全球经济复苏的进程。美元的中期反弹可能性大增