第一章汇率的决定与国际平价条件.pptVIP

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第一章汇率的决定与国际平价条件.ppt

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第一章汇率决定与国际平价条件基本内容有关外汇与汇率的基本知识（reference to chapter four) 汇率变化幅度的测定汇率变化的影响因素购买力平价利率平价国际费雪效应汇率预测 Foreign exchange (fx) markets An exchange rate measures the value of one currency in units of another currency. Markets Spot market Trade in cash with delivery in two business days Forward market Trade at a pre-specified price and on a pre-specified future date Volume $1.2 trillion average daily volume during 2001 75% of trade is in the interbank market（75%的交易是银行之间的外汇交易，其日均交易额达1.2trillion 美元） FX turnover by currency Participants in the fx market Wholesale market Dealers (or market makers) Buy and sell at quoted bid and offer prices Brokers Serve as matchmakers, without putting their own money at risk Retail market Governments Corporations Smaller financial institutions Individuals Two rules for multinational finance Rule #1 Keep track of your units （注意货币单位） Rule #2 Always buy or sell the currency in the denominator of a foreign exchange quote（买卖的货币是指外汇标价中处于分母的货币） Rule #1 Keep track of your units Rule #1 Keep track of your units Rule #2 Think of buying or sellingthe asset in the denominator 先从商品买卖说起，Buying and selling a bottle of wine Buy a bottle at €40/btl and sell at €50/btl T €10/btl profit。在这里买卖的对象是分母中的wine。 Buying or selling a foreign currency is like buying or selling any other asset. Buying and selling euros Buy €s at $0.80/€ and sell at $1.00/€ Buy €s at $0.80/€ o Sell $s at €1.25/$ Sell €s at $1.00/€ o Buy $s at €1.00/$ T $0.20/€ profit T €0.25/$ profit An example of what can go wrong 如果买卖价格弄错了，即如果Buy $s at $0.80/€ and sell $s at $1.00/€，结果会如何呢？ Buy $s at $0.80/€ o Sell €s at €1.25/$ Sell $s at $1.00/€ o Buy €s at €1.00/$ T $0.20/€ loss T €0.25/$ loss So, Always think of buying or selling the currency in the denominator! FX quotation conventions (汇率报价惯例） European/American quotes for the $ European quotes are convenient for a European because they place the foreign currency (the $) in the denominator（银行间报价多为欧式报价，即单位美