本科毕设论文---欧元区债务危机对美元指数及国际黄金价格走势影响分析.docVIP

欧元区债务危机对美元指数及 国际黄金价格走势影响分析 摘 要 金融危机以来，多数国家为了应对危机，实施了刺激经济复苏的量化宽松货币政策，为通货膨胀预期埋下了伏笔，而市场对通货膨胀的预期渐渐开始释放，投资者为了应对货币持续扩张的风险，明显增加了对黄金的需求，导致国际金价逐步走高。市场避险情绪上升，黄金作为市场喜爱的避险品种再次受到追捧。受欧洲债务危机拖累，欧元汇率持续疲软，欧元持有者也大量抛售欧元购入美元，导致美元指数震荡走高。随着危机的不断扩大，欧盟和国际货币基金组织的援助计划的推出，以及美联储重启量化宽松货币政策QE2，使得美元指数在连续走高后开始逐步下行。而美元指数无序宽幅波动，也反映了国际金融市场的不稳定性。2009年底,金融危机的风暴还未完全散去,又一场大规模的主权债务危机登上了舞台。 包括希腊、葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、西班牙等国先后出现了严重的财政赤字和公共债务崩溃《欧盟稳定与增长公约》的警戒线形同虚设欧盟7500亿的输血计划没有让欧元区顿时起死回生国家面临极大的主权信用风险金融危机留下的隐患,使得欧盟近两年经济增长乏力但同时仍必须维持高福利的社会待遇欧盟成员国经济发展又不均衡财政负担非常沉重。欧盟内在的制度使得其成员国缺乏货币政策工具调控宏观经济财政支出扩大具有内生性的倾向加上没有严格的约束机制和惩罚机制造成此举愈演愈烈。欧盟目前想尽快走出困境除了采取有力的救助计划之外还应对整个经济制度框架进行改革制定出统一的财政政策制度框架和严格约束惩罚机制。欧洲主权债务危机本质上是欧洲经济一体化的缺陷在金融危机冲击下的一次总爆发。本文就欧债危机的演进路径进行了简要的分析与判断，讨论了危机The impact analysis of eurozone debt crisis against the dollar index and international gold price trend ABSTRACT Since the financial crisis, most countries in order to cope with the crisis, implement the quantitative an economic recovery looser monetary policy, for inflation expectations, and buried a foreshadowing the market to the inflation expectations slowly began to release, investors in order to deal with currency risk of continued expansion dramatically increased demand for gold, lead to the international gold higher. Gradually Market gold as a hedge emotion rising, the market like again adore hedge varieties. By the European debt crisis drag, the euro remains weak, the euro holder also heavy selling bought dollars, lead to euro dollar index concussion go up. As the crisis continues to expand, the European Union and the international monetary fund, and the aid program launched the fed to restart quantitative looser monetary policy QE2, making the dollar index in continuous go high began gradually to the downside. And the dollar index disorder, it reflects the wide fluctuations in international instability in financial markets. By the end of 2009, the financial crisis storm are not completely dispersed, and a massive sovereign debt crisis appeared on the stage.