《3.财务预测.pptVIP

财务分析框架总览 阶段1 －计划 阶段2－分析: 关键的循环 STAGE 2A－收集事实 STAGE 2B－确定什么是重要的 STAGE 2C－分析资料 关键问题或范围是什么？ 提出的问题是什么？ 还有什么其他有用的数据？ STAGE 2C－分析总结 以你的听众为对象 展开“故事” 选择方法 利润预测的目的 满足证监会对上市公司信息披露的要求 管理层的需要 a. 了解公司将发生的主要活动 b. 为决策提供依据 税务计划的需要 内部客户 职能部门管理者 外部客户 投资者 证券分析 信贷银行 税务机关 法律要求 预测和其他利润审阅的关系 与利润预测有关的主要信息 (1) 财务计划销量过程 For purposes of this training, we’ll divide the framework into four stages. Stage 1 is the planning stage Stage 2 is the analysis stage Stage 3 is the presentation Stage 4 is the implementation The training today will focus on stages 1-3. These are the stages where we develop a workplan and scope the issue, which happens in stage 1, the analysis, which is in stage 2, and the development of recommendation and required action plan, which is stage 3. Stage 1 can be defined as the planning stage. Here you will develop your workplan. If this is a lengthy analysis, involves other people, or is complicated, it is best to write the workplan on paper so all parties involved are aware of their responsibilities and the timing. In developing the workplan, you will need to scope the issue. Questions to consider while you scope include: What are the timing requirements and management review of the analysis? What information do you already have? What do you ultimately need to know? What is your source of data? -- Identify that which has a long leadtime and inquire there first Who are the experts you need to consult? What level of accuracy is required? Can you apply 80/20? Or does it require a deep dive analysis? Stage two is the critical loop – gathering facts, determining what is important and analyzing and summarizing what was found. This usually involves “crunching the numbers” after the fact finding and data gathering. In stage two, you should identify the physicals that would cause the figures to change – this assists you in fully understanding the potential issues. You will also need to confirm your findings and understanding to date. You ne