应用回归分析..docxVIP

《实用回归分析》课程论文人口老龄化背景下养老模式变化趋势研究Model under the aging population background trend research学 号： 140803042姓 名： 张静怡 年 级： 14级统计一班 专 业： 统计学 完成日期： 摘要：截止到2014年底，我国65岁及以上老年人口达到1.37亿，约占全国总人口的10%，标志着我国老龄化的进程不断加剧。老年人口规模不断扩大，老年人口的老龄化速度持续加快，对我国的家庭和谐、经济发展、社会稳定、国家建设等很多方面产生深远影响。传统的家庭养老模式受到前所未有的挑战，老年抚养比上升速度远远超过老年人口所占比重上升速度，意味着越来越多老年人口使劳动年龄人口无力担负，同时国家对老年人养老金支出总额需要不断增大。人口结构的老龄化改变了我国的消费结构，更多的老年人需要消费，而生产者供给却逐渐滞后，消费结构的变化必将影响到我国的各种产业和就业结构的调整和变化，进而推动养老产业的兴起与蓬勃发展。本文根据数据调查和资料查阅试分析了我国人口老龄化的现状，因人口老龄化而引发的后果，人口老龄化背景下老年人的几种常见的养老模式及养老模式的变化趋势，并由此提出了最适合老年人养老的养老模式，以及若干完善养老模式的方法。关键词：老龄化；养老模式；变化趋势；完善方法ABSTRACTBy the end of 2014, at ages 65 and older reached 137 million, accounting for 10% of the total population of the country, marking Chinas ageing process intensifies. Expanding the size of the elderly population, the ageing of the older population continues to accelerate, on family harmony, economic development, social stability, nation building, and many have a profound impact. Traditional family patterns are faced with unprecedented challenges, old-age dependency ratio increased much faster than the proportion of the elderly rise, means that more and more elderly to working-age population cannot afford, while the State pension for the elderly needs to increase total expenditures. Ageing of the population structure change of consumption structure in China, more older people want to consume, and producers supply is gradually lagging consumption structure changes will affect our countrys industrial structure adjustment and employment and changes, thus promoting the pension industry rise and flourish. Based on survey data and information access to analyse the present situation of Chinas aging population, due to the consequences of ageing population, older persons under the aging population background of several common model and model trends, and the proposed old-age pension model most suitable for the elderly, as well as several methods of perfecting mode..Key words: Aging, model, trend, improving m