中国恩格尔系数的计量分析.docVIP

中国恩格尔系数的计量分析 内容摘要 恩格尔系数是衡量民众生活水平和经济发展程度的统计指标之一本文我国31个省市的横截面数据建立了一个恩格尔系数一元回归模型，得出的恩格尔系数计算式能更好的衡量居民生活水平和质量。并算出了我国农村部分省市修正后的恩格尔系数，为政府工作人员制定发展政策提供了理论依据。Econometric Analysis of Engels Coefficient in china Abstract Engels Coefficient is a measure of peoples living standards and economic development level of statistical indicators. Since Chinas reform and opening up ,along with rapid economic development,people are getting richer and richer,living standards are increasing.In the per capita disposable income growing,the engel coefficient to draw a trajectory from high to low.This original purpose is to address personal disposable income and the relationship between the Engels coefficient, but as to explore in-depth, constantly adding new explanatory variables, and use our 31 provinces and municipalities set up a cross-sectional data Engel coefficient of a regression model, and continually revised the model has reached the Engels coefficient calculation formula can be a better measure of living standards and quality. And calculate the part of Chinas rural provinces revised Engel coefficient for the government staff development policy provides a theoretical basis. And concluded with the amendment to replace the Engels coefficient of Engels Coefficient of new degree of model fit better. Key words：Engels Coefficient Linear regression Food expenditure Amendments to Engels Coefficient 中国恩格尔系数的计量分析 一．问题的提出 权威部门的资料表明，自1996年以来，中国居民消费结构发生了显著变化，以恩格尔系数衡量，城镇居民由1995年的49.9%下降到1999年的41，。9%，农村居民则由58.6%下降到52.6%。去年底，综合看起来，中国城乡居民的恩格尔系数已经下降到了50%以下。 由于生活水平的提高，就吃而言，人们会选择除了主食以外更多的食品、如牛奶、速冻食品以及绿色食品。在用的方面，电等耐用消费品的热点长盛不衰。彩电由平面直角而纯平、超平、高清晰度，冰箱由单门而多门、大容量、绿色环保。家用空调器、家庭影院、中高档家具等成为新的消费热点；家用电脑、移动电话、微波炉、影碟机消费者物价指数家庭设备用品消食品支出FOODOUT总的消费性支出TOTALOUT个人可支配收入DPI家庭设备用品消费FURNITUREOUT住房消费HOUSEOUT代表耐用消费品的消费医疗保健MEDICALOUT教育支出EDUCATIONOUT服装支出CLOTHESOUT代表物价水平高低的消费者物价指数CPI+DP+FU+H+M+E+CL+CP+ 五、数据处理与统计分析 运用最小二乘法对估计的模型方程中的参数进行估计 表（1）Eviews的最小二乘计算结果 Dependent Variable: Y Method: Le