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J. Cent. South Univ. Technol. (2010) 17: 947?953 DOI: 10.1007/s11771?010?0582?5 Seismological method for prediction of areal rockbursts in deep mine with seismic source mechanism and unstable failure theory TANG Li-zhong(唐礼忠)1, 2, XIA K W2 School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto M4Y 1R5, Canada ? Central South University Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010 Abstract: The research on the rock burst prediction was made on the basis of seismology, rock mechanics and the data from Dongguashan Copper Mine (DCM), the deepest metal mine in China. The seismic responses to mining in DCM were investigated through the analyses of the spatio-temporal distribution of hypocenters, apparent stress and displacement of seismic events, and the process of the generation of hazardous seismicity in DCM was studied in the framework of the theory of asperity in the seismic source mechanism. A method of locating areas with hazardous seismicity and a conceptual model of hazardous seismic nucleation in DCM were proposed. A criterion of rockburst prediction was analyzed theoretically in the framework of unstable failure theories, and consequently, the rate of change in the ratio of the seismic stiffness of rock in a seismic nucleation area to that in surrounding area, dS/dt, is defined as an index of the rockburst prediction. The possibility of a rockburst will increase if dS/dt＞0, and the possibility of rock burst will decrease if dS/dt＜0. The correctness of these methods is demonstrated by analyses of rock failure cases in DCM. 摘要：本次岩爆预测研究是在地震学、岩石力学的基础上，结合中国最深的金属矿山——冬瓜山铜矿（以下简称DCM）的相关数据而进行的。通过对震源的时空分布分析以及对地震事件的表面应力和位移分析，研究DCM采矿活动的地震响应；并且，对DCM产生危险性地震活动的过程的研究是在震源机制中粗糙理论的框架下进行的。在此提出一种定位有害地震活动的方法和DCM有害地震成核的概念模型。它在失稳破坏理论的框架下理论分析了一种预测岩爆的标准尺度，即地震成核区域岩石与周围岩石的地震刚度比的变化率——，并被定义为预测岩爆的指