ppt课件-titelder 酱油 cosmo（ titelder prsentation-cosmo）.pptVIP

Quantitative precipitation forecast in the Alps Verification results DOP MAP-DPHASE June-November 2007July 2008 COSMO GM, PP INTERP, 16.09.2008 Quantitative precipitation forecast with NWP Quantitative precipitation forecast with NWP MAP D-PHASE Observational data Alerts – level ?yellow“, 3h int., JJA 2007 Daily cycle, JJA 2007 Contingency table COSMO-2, JJA 2007 Concept of “Relative Value” Relative value – Alert level ?yellow“ Advantage of convection resolving models Impact of rapid update cycle Fuzzy Verification Upscaling (2007) Fraction skill score (2007) Score vs intensity, whole dop COSMO-2 – COSMO-7 (2007) COSMO-EU - COSMO-7 (2007) COSMO-DE - COSMO-2 (2007) COSMO-2: Convection resolving or convection inhibiting model? Parallel test-suite - July 2008 Motivation: Try something in order to save model reputation Past tests: COSMO-2 model is very sensitive to changes of the turbulence scheme parameter tur_len Testsuite: Change of settings in the statistical cloud scheme Modified asymptotic turbulent length scale (tur_len) Fuzzy verification for 00 and 12 UTC runs separately Fuzzy verification for optimal time-serie considering all the available runs with a cut-off of 3h July 2008 – 00 UTC RUNS July 2008 – 12 UTC RUNS July 2008 – all runs with 3h cut-off Conclusions Thank you for your attention! * COSMO GM, PP INTERP, Quantitative precipitation verification in the Alps Matteo.Buzzi[at]meteoswiss.ch Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Felix Ament1,2 ,Tanja Weusthoff1, Matteo Buzzi1 1MeteoSwiss 2Universit?t Hamburg Intensity Scale difficult good difficult good 1. How bad is COSMO-2? Traditional verification $ 2. How useful can be a model forecast? Cost loss analysis 3. At which scale and intensity we perform better? Fuzzy verification July 2008 4. COSMO-2: Convection resolving or convection inhibiting model?Turbulent lenght scale Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmo