I中国科技投入与经济增长的关系研究.docVIP

中国科技投入与经济增长的关系研究 兰州商学院 张冉、杨新玲、胡岩 摘要：本文采用1991至2009年的年度时间序列数据，在 VAR模型的基础上，利用协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了中国科技投入与经济增长的长期均衡关系与短期动态关系。结果表明，中国科技投入与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系，科技投入每增加1%，中国经济增加0.7782%，短期内中国科技投入每增加1%，经济增长0.257298%，短期科技投入对经济增长的弹性系数明显小于长期，说明科技转化为生产力存在滞后性，长期内科技投入对经济增长的作用更为明显。 关键词：科技投入；经济增长；协整分析 Research on Chinese Science and Technology Investment and Economic Growth Abstract:In this paper ,we use the annual time series data from 1991 to 2009,In the VAR model, based on the use of cointegration test, error correction model, impulse response functions and variance decomposition ,analysis of the Chinese science and technology and Economic Growth in long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic relationship. The results show that Chinese science and technology investment and economic growth have long-term equilibrium relationship, Science and technology investment for every 1% increase，Chinas economy will increase 0.7782 percent, Short-term investment in Chinas technology for every 1% increase, Chinas economy will increase 0.257298 percent, Growth elasticity of Short-term technology investment for economic growth is significantly less than the long-term’s, Explain that there is lag when science and technology Convert into productivity forces, So long-term investment in science and technology to economic growth was more effective. Key words: Science and Technology Investment ;Economic Growth ;Cointegration Test 目　录 一、前言………………………………………………………………………………1 二、中国科技投入与经济增长的描述性分析………………………………………3 1、科技投入与经济增长的现状…………………………………………………3 2、科技投入与GDP相关性分析…………………………………………………4 三、中国科技投入与经济增长的实证分析…………………………………………5 1、变量平稳性检验 ………………………………………………………………5 2、协整检验……………………………………………………………………6 3、VAR模型的建立及基于VAR 的模型分析……………………………………7 四、结论……………………………………………………………………………11 五、政策建议………………………………………………………………………12 参考文献……………………………………………………………………………13 数据附表……………………………………………………………………………14 一、前言 雄厚的经济实力是一个国家繁荣、富强的标志，是社会和谐的基础，因此追求经济增长是人类社会的最基本目标。自从第一次产业革命以来，技术进步已逐渐