渐进改革中利率制度安排与变迁.doc

渐进改革中的利率制度安排与变迁 高晓红 （中国人民银行营业管理部，北京，100045） [内容摘要] 根据制度经济学理论，制度是有层次的有机系统。因而实现从一种制度向另一种制度过渡变迁，需要一个合乎逻辑的合意次序，以尽可能地降低制度变迁成本。作为整个经济体制中的一个子系统，利率制度在中国整个经济转轨与制度变迁过程中并没有立即进行根本性的变迁。只是稍加调整，而并未有质的突破，相对其他层面较为滞后。尽管单独地考察，这无疑是违背市场化改革原则的，但放在整个制度系统及渐进改革过程中，却自有其合乎逻辑之处。本文正是基于渐进改革的历史背景，描述了低利率管制制度的实际引入与现实安排，考察了这一制度的收益与成本及其消长变化，揭示了利率制度从被引入到被替代整个过程的基本逻辑。 [关键词]渐进改革 低利率管制 制度收益 制度成本 制度变迁 市场化 [作者简介]高晓红（1975.2—）男，金融学硕士，现工作于中国人民银行营业管理部，先后在《金融研究》、《改革》等经济学核心期刊发表学术论文二十余篇。通讯地址：北京市西城区月坛南街79号中国人民银行营业管理部货币信贷处。邮政编码：100045。 联系电话：（010 E-mail:gaoyuan881@163.com Institutional Arrangement and Evolution of Interest Rate System in the Gradual Reform By Gao Xiaohong Abstract According to institutional economics, the evolution of the system is an organic one with specific order. During the shift from one system to anther, there should exist a logical step to lower the shift cost. When China’s whole economy switched and its system shift took place, as a subsystem, interest rate did not change thoroughly but slightly. Compared with other fields, the reform of the interest rate system was sluggish far away. Although independently analyzed, the fact goes against the principle of marketizating reform, it is logical when put in the whole system’s gradual reform. In the framework of gradual reform, this paper describes the introduction and arrangement of low-leveled interest rate regime. At the same time, the dynamic comparison between the system’s revenue and costs is presented, the evolution of the interest rate system which will take place is indicated. As the emphasis, the institutional background and the path arrangement required by the system evolution is also analyzed. Key Words: Gradual Reform Interest Rate Regulation Institutional Revenue Institutional Cost Institutional evolution Marketization 渐进改革中的利率制度安排与变迁 高晓红 （中国人民银行营业管理部，北京，100045） [内容摘要] 根据制度经济学理论，制度是有层次的有机系统。因而实现从一种制度向另一种制度过渡变迁，需要一个合乎逻辑的合意次序，以尽可能地降低制度变迁成本。作为整个经济体制中的一个子系统，利率制度在中国整个经济转轨