ppt课件-cpucavoidedcostworkshop-environmentaleconomics.pptVIP

CPUC Avoided Cost Workshop Environmental Externality Avoided Cost Emissions Comment Areas Value of emissions is being double-counted Avoided costs should not include a value for reduced CO2 emissions Emissions Evaluation Framework Air Pollutants Considered Working Group Recommendation Focus on NOx, CO2 and PM-10 NOx is most actively traded emission species in CA, 6% from power plants, direct gas CO2 is not regulated in US (yet), int’l trade emerging, about 30% from power plants, gas PM-10 increase due to CT generation, 1% from power plants, PM-2.5 may be an issue SO2, CO, HCs not likely to be significant Calculating the Externality Adder Environmental Adder = S tons/MWh * $/ton (emission intensity * externality value) Emission intensity depends on the energy source that is at the margin (short-term and/or long-term), in terms of fuel source, plant age, heat rate, and emission control technology The marginal source is determined by the other proposed analytic methods Level of Adder for Emissions Resulting Emissions Adder by Heat Rate Approach to CO2 Emission Cost Value CO2 emission costs are not externalities, but rather a present value of projected future emission costs Direct emission abatement not feasible at present Emission reduction costs range from $2/ton-CO2 (forestry and land use) to $50/ton-CO2 (solar power) Markets emerging, not yet mature, especially in U.S. Recent market costs: EU ETS $7-14/ton-CO2, UK ETS $4-20/ton-CO2, Dutch CERs $4-8/ton-CO2, World Bank PCF $3-12/ton-CO2 Oregon CT $1-4/ton-CO2 Must also rely on studies that project future marginal costs and market trading prices Model estimates of emission stabilization (no trading) and Kyoto compliance (with trading) range from $5 to $69/ton-CO2, with a median value around 17 /ton-CO2 Discounting a future stream of project emission cost values back to 2004 resutls in a value of $8/ton-CO2 Why Include CO2 for Efficiency? Likely development of CO2 emissions limits on stationary sources over the ti