ppt课件-impactevaluationofinvestmentsintransportinfrastructure.pptVIP

Evaluating the Impact of Improvements in Transport: The Case of Transport Corridors in Southern Africa Sandra Sequeira Harvard University August 31, 2006 Outline of the Discussion Motivation: Nexus between Transport, Trade and Growth Policy Intervention: Rehabilitating Transport Corridors Evaluation Project: Goal: measure micro-level impact of changes in transport costs Primary and auxiliary evaluation questions The importance of a micro approach Detailed research design: Empirical Strategy, Robustness of results Implementation Details Trade, Transport and Growth Freight Costs Firms Trade Investment Congested Ports Non-performing Rail Poor maintenance of Roads GROWTH Transport, Trade and Growth (Cont) Hummels (1998), Venables (1999), Yeats (1996) increasing importance of transport costs, especially for Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) SSA: commodity based economies, high volume, low value goods long distances, several border posts accumulated neglect of primary transport networks Goal: Reduce costs of exporting raw materials and importing inputs and final goods TRADE-LED GROWTH Policy Goals: Guiding the Transport Infrastructure Shock Important to understand: Extent, Determinants and Impact of transport Policies Impact of transport costs on firms Motivating questions: “Do investments in transport infrastructure reduce transport costs for firms? To what extent and how do transport costs affect firm productivity, profits, employment generation and export propensity?” Policy Intervention: What, Where, Why? Project: Evaluation of Transport Improvements in South Africa and Mozambique Why? High impact area due to: High overland transport costs Long distances to ports Commodity based economies Geographic Focus South Africa Important industrial, mining and agricultural region far from the coast (600 - 1,200 km) Current accelerating growth strategy constrained