FusionandtheWorldEnergySceneChrisLlewellynSmithDi.ppt

Fusion and the World Energy Scene Chris Llewellyn SmithDirector UKAEA CulhamChairman Consultative Committee for Euratom on Fusion (CCE-FU) If chance of zero or very small ? should stop achieving viable fusion RD fusion power is reasonable ? should develop as fast as possible What is a “reasonable” chance depends on Security of future access to fossil fuels (in era of rapidly increasing energy use) – very country dependent Degree of concern about continuing use of fossil fuels View of potential of other alternatives to fossil fuels View of cost of fusion development (will touch on all these issues) According to Clive Cookson (Science Editor of the Financial Times) “Even if ITER runs well over budget, its spending is unlikely to exceed $1bn a year. That would be a small price to pay even for a 20% chance of giving the world another energy option” I hope to convince you that - This is right - Chance of success is 20% OUTLINE The Energy Challenge - world energy scene; climate change Meeting the challenge - portfolio of necessary measures; cost targets for new energy sources European Fusion Power Plant Conceptual Study Culham Fast Track Study What should we be doing in parallel to building ITER? The cost of fusion RD Conclusions World Energy Scene (I) 1) The world uses a lot of energy Average power consumption = 13.6 TWs, or 2.2 kWs per person [world energy [electricity] market ~ $3 trillion [$1 trillion] pa] - very unevenly (OECD 6.2kWs/person; Bangladesh 0.20 kWs/person) 2) World energy use is expected to grow - growth necessary to lift billions of people out of poverty 3) 80% is generated by burning fossil fuels ? climate change debilitating pollution - which won’t last for ever Need major new (clean) energy sources - requires new technology World Energy Scene (II) 4) Use of primary energy - In USA: 34% residential commercial; 37% industrial; 26% transport (~3