(ID280运用AgentbasedModel研究城市经济分割问题.docVIP

运用Agent-based Model研究 城市经济分割问题 闫妍1，2，朱晓武3 （1．中国科学院研究生院 管理学院，北京 100080；2. 国家信息中心，北京，100045； 3．中国政法大学 商学院，北京 102249; ） 摘 要：本文将住房市场视为一个复杂系统，利用改进后的agent-based model，模拟当住房商品化发展到一定程度后会城市内部经济分割空间差异指数Research on Urban Economic Segregation Using Agent-based Model Yan Yan1 Zhu Xiaowu2, 3 (1. School of Management of Graduate University , Chinese Academy of Sciences；Beijing 100080； 2. State Information Center, Beijing, 100045；3. Business School, China University of Political Science and Law; Beijing 102249;） Abstract: Housing market is regarded as a complex system in this paper. With the improved agent-based model, we simulate the emerging process of urban economic segregation as the housing commercialization has developed to some extent. We use Gini Coefficient to measure the economic inequality and Spatial Dissimilarity Index to evaluate the urban economic segregation. The empirical analysis shows that the extent of economic inequality will be higher if the families’ wealth ex housing increases more rapidly, which will accelerate the dwelling classification movement and urban economic segregation. There will be more and more serious economic segregation in Beijing in the long run driven by the market force. We suggest that China should bring forward the Mixed Income Communities to guide the sustainable development for the Chinese housing market in the future. Key words: Agent-based Model; Economic Segregation; Gini Coefficient; Spatial Dissimilarity Index；Mixed Income Communities 1 引言 2008年11月9日，为抵御国际经济环境对我国的不利影响，中国政府进一步扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施经济分割是指不同经济阶层在空间上彼此居住分离的程度，在美国和欧洲一些发达国家都是很常见的社会现象(Dorling and Rees 2003; Hardman and Ioannides, 2004; Eitle et al.，2006)[1-3]。根据对相关文献的回顾，我们经济分割的原因归结为收入不平等、市场力政策收入不平等趋势的增长使高收入区更加富裕，穷人聚居区更加贫困。少数富裕家庭获得国家经济增最大的份额收入不平等的增长长期恶化穷人的地位收入不平等的增长是造成经济分割的宏观影响因素，而居民居住选择的微观决定则更直接地造成了经济分割高收入家庭通常会选择位置、环境、配套服务较好房价较高的社区，与其他高收入家庭住在一起而低收入家庭受到有限的资金约束，理性消费者会寻求社会支付较高、个人承担较低费用的住房这一过程被描述为“居住分类”，是市场的必然趋势(Glomm and Lagunoff, 1998)。，政策推动了，增强了住房和贫困之间的联系。美国的整