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continuity equations in continuous auditing the modelsfor（在连续审计modelsfor连续性方程）.doc

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Continuity Equations in Continuous Auditing: Detecting Anomalies in Business Processes Jia Wu Dept of Accounting and Finance University of Massachusetts – Dartmouth 285 Oldwestport Road North Dartmouth, MA 02747 Alex Kogan Department of Accounting Information Systems Rutgers University 180 University Ave Newark, NJ 07102 Michael Alles Department of Accounting Information Systems Rutgers University 180 University Ave Newark, NJ 07102 Miklos Vasarhelyi Department of Accounting Information Systems Rutgers University 180 University Ave Newark, NJ 07102 Oct, 2005 Abstract: This research discusses how Continuity Equations (CE) can be developed and implemented in Continuous Auditing (CA) for anomaly detection purpose. We use real-world data sets extracted from the supply chain of a large healthcare management firm in this study. Our first primary objective is to demonstrate how to develop CE models from a Business Process (BP) auditing approach. Two types of CE models are constructed in our study — the Simultaneous Equation Model (SEM) and the Multivariate Time Series Model (MTSM). Our second primary objective is to design a set of online learning and error correction protocols for automatic model selection and updating. Our third primary objective is to evaluate the CE models through comparison. First, we compare the prediction accuracy of the CE models and the traditional analytical procedure model. Our results indicate that CE models have relatively good prediction accuracy. Second, we compare the anomaly detection capability of the AP models with error correction and models without error correction. We find that models with error correction have better performance than models without error correction. Lastly, we examine the difference in detection capability between CE models and the traditional AP model. Overall, we find that CE models outperform linear regression model in terms of anomaly detection. Keywords: continuous auditing, analytical procedure, a