ppt课件-2nd international conferenceon fogand fog collection（第二国际conferenceon fogand雾收集）.pptVIP

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ppt课件-2nd international conferenceon fogand fog collection（第二国际conferenceon fogand雾收集）.ppt

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* * PROGRESS ON A KNOWLEDGE-BASED INTERNET WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM 100-day evaluation trial from 25 September, 2002 to 8 January, 2003. Harvey Stern (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) /internetforecasts.html Location Diagram (1) Location Diagram (2) Example (NWP MSL Prognosis) Example (The System’s Output) Background An early version of the knowledge-based system was presented to the 18th IIPS Conference (Stern, 2002). The system was developed for the small (227,000 sq km) southeast Australian State of Victoria. It was described as being capable of generating forecasts for public, aviation, marine and media interests, in languages other than English, and for more than 200 localities in Victoria. The large volume of output proposed here (forecasts for than 200 localities) would be difficult (if not impossible) to generate manually However, it would be straightforward (to generate) utilising automated systems. “Bank” of forecaster experience A major benefit of the knowledge-based system is that it incorporates an extensive bank of forecaster experience. Ramage (1993) has proposed an iterative approach to locking in improvements in forecasting methodology. The automated nature of the system lends itself to Ramages approach. The systems skill increases as new knowledge is incorporated into its operation. Hence, progress is gradually made towards the realisation of Ramages dream. Not “yet another” instrument of forecast guidance The system is not seen as yet another instrument of forecast guidance. Rather, its development is seen as a logical step along the path of having the computer replicate the best aspects of the manual side of the forecast process, by systematically locking in new knowledge. As Brooks (1995), wrote: technology, which initially allowed humans to make routine weather forecasts, will soon close that avenue of human endeavour ... (and thereby permit) concentration on severe events. The main human-interaction is in utilising forecast