ppt课件-acriticalassessmentofthebushnationalsecuritystrategy.pptVIP

“COERCIVE DISSUASION” Through GLOBAL STRIKE A Critical Assessment of the Bush National Security Strategy Presentation to the 2003 Summer Faculty Institute on World Security Affairs June 10-13, 2003 Christopher E. Paine Senior Analyst, NRDC Nuclear Program 1200 New York Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20005 chrispaine@ Three (Flawed) Bush Postulates of NSC/WMD #1: “The possession and increased likelihood of use of WMD by hostile states and terrorists are realities of the contemporary security environment.” Comment: Note the conflation of “hostile states” with “terrorists” and the groundless suggestion that an “increased likelihood of [WMD] use” by both is a “reality” of the current security environ-ment. This is fantasy masquerading as analysis. Flawed Postulates cont… #2: “We know from experience that we cannot always be successful in preventing and containing the proliferation of WMD to hostile states and terrorists (emphasis added).” Comment: The world’s only actual “experience” with WMD terrorism involved the Aum Shin Rikyo cult’s Sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway. Third Bush WMD Postulate #3: “Today’s threats are far more diverse and less predictable than those of the past. States hostile to the United States and to our friends and allies have demonstrated their willingness to take high risks to achieve their goals, and are aggressively pursuing WMD and their means of delivery as critical tools in this effort. As a consequence, we require new methods of deterrence.” Proliferation Reality Check In 1979 there were 10 countries of nuclear proliferation concern Today there are 6, only one of which is a “new” entrant – North Korea. Positive Developments: South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Taiwan and South Korea are off the list NPT indefinitely extended in 1995 Nuclear weapons removed from South Korea, Eastern Europe and newly independent states of former Soviet Union. More Positive Developments Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones in place in