ppt课件-sensitivityofthelocalresponsetoextremenaophases.pptVIP

Group 5 Bojariu, Roxana National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Romania Srnec, Lidija Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia Velea, Liliana National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Romania Sensitivity of the local response over Europe to extreme NAO phases Motivation NAO It’s a dominant circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere winter. It’s a source of predictability for the European regions. It has socio-economic impacts (e.g. power and water management, marine ecosystem resources, agriculture) Questions: Does the model represent the NAO signal? What is the effect of ocean flux parameterization scheme on the simulated NAO signal? Experiment design Domain: 80x70x18 46N,8E Period of simulations: January 1995 (CRU NAO index=+2.7) January 1996 (CRU NAO index=-3.71) Data: ECMWF NCEP2 CRU Ocean flux scheme: Zeng BATS PRECIPITATION 1995CRU  ECMWF  NCEP2 TEMPERATURE Jan 1995CRU ECMWF NCEP2 PRECIPITATION JAN 1996CRU ECMWF NCEP2 TEMPERATURE JAN 1996CRU  ECMWF  NCEP2 DIFFERENCE PRECIPITATION (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2)CRU NCEP2 DIFFERENCE TEMPERATURE (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2)CRU NCEP2 PRECIPITATION Jan 1995(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (ECMWF) CRU  Zeng BATS PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (NCEP2) CRU Zeng BATS TEMPERATURE JAN 1995(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS TEMPERATURE JAN 1996(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS Preliminary conclusions Local features of the NAO-type patterns are well represented. Relevant local responses due to topography are identified. Zeng ocean flux parameterization scheme seems to be more realistic in precipitation field, but the differences are not pronounced. Follow up Extended simulation interval More analysis methods * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *