大数据经济学.ppt

Data on tracking business processes and outcomes can be used to improve efficiency Targeted pricing Use stock transaction data to arbitrage There has been a remarkable amount of work on the statistical and machine learning techniques that underlie these applications: classification models, lasso and ridge regressions, data mining, text mining, etc. 大数据的使用：管理 A conceptual overview of building predictive models: N observations and K variables; K is very large, often larger than N. With these types of data, we often get perfect fit within sample but poor prediction out of sample. Solution? Lasso Machine learning models assume stable environment; but this assumption may not be satisfied if individuals respond to the change (Lucas critique) 大数据的使用 Government collect or could collect a large amount of detailed micro-level data. These data can be used for tracking economic activities, evaluating policies, fighting fraud, risk control, support decision making and for developing new information services and products (alerting fraud, inform consumers about the consequence of their decisions such as taking out loans, purchasing houses and retirement decisions) 大数据下的政策分析 Big data provides a detailed snapshot of economic activity (almost) in real time. Therefore, big data allow for better measurements of economic effects and outcomes, help to pose new sorts of research questions and enable novel research designs that can inform us about the consequences of different economic policies and events Big data may change the way economists approach empirical questions and the tool they use to answer them 大数据下的经济分析 For example, economists have not embraced some of the data mining tools. The reason is that economists do not want to shift away from the single covariate causal effects framework. In the mind of economists, there is a sharp distinction between predictive modeling and causal inference, and as a result statistical learning approaches have little to contribute