具有行蓄洪区的复杂水系实时洪水预报研究.docVIP

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: /publication/260286087 Real-time flood forecasting for complex watershed with flood diversion and flood retarding areas Article · August 2009 CITATIONS READS 2 105 3 authors, including: Hongjun Bao Zhijia Li China Meteorological Administration Hohai University 39 PUBLICATIONS 146 CITATIONS 490 PUBLICATIONS 2,048 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Research and Application of New Generation Watershed Real-time Flood Forecasting Model Based on the Coupling of Hydrology and Meteorology Technologies View project All content following this page was uploaded by Hongjun Bao on 22 February 2014. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.  第 28 卷 第 4 期 2009 年 8 月 水 　力 　发 　电 　学 　报 JOURNAL OF HYDROELECTRIC ENGINEERING Vol. 28 　No. 4 Aug. , 2009 具有行蓄洪区的复杂水系实时洪水预报研究 包红军 ,李致家 ,王莉莉 (河海大学水文水资源学院 ,南京 210098) 摘 　要 : 建立确定和随机相结合的预报模型对复杂水系的实时洪水预报进行研究。确定性模型采用分布式概念性模型 进行流域流量过程预报 ;基于马斯京根法、水文水位法与扩散波非线性水位法 ,构建河道流量和水位模拟的综合法对河 道以及行蓄洪区的洪水进行预报。随机模型采用基于误差自回归的时变遗忘因子最小二乘递推法对误差进行实时校 正。以淮河鲁台子以上流域为例 ,具有行蓄洪区的干流洪水采用河道流量和水位模拟的综合法与实时校正模型按节点 有机结合的方法进行预报。预报模型在 2007 年的大洪水预报中得到了检验 ,取得了较高的精度。 关键词 : 实时预报 ;分布式水文模型 ;马斯京根法 ;最小二乘递推 ;行蓄洪 中图分类号 : TV124 文献标识码 : A Real2time flood forecasting for complex watershed with flood diversion and flood retarding areas BAO Hongjun , LI Zhijia , WANGLili ( College of Hydrology and Water Resources , Hohai University , Nanjiang , Jiangsu 　210098) Abstract: An integrated approach of combining deterministic and stochastic models is applied to real2time flood forecasting for complex watersheds. The deterministic model forcasts watershed yield by adopting a distributed hydrological conceptual model , and simulates flooding runoff and water level for river channel with flood diversion and flood retaring areas by adopting the Muskingum routing method , the hydrological method of water level simulation as