基于效用函数的铁路选线设计模型及应用研究.doc

基于效用理论的铁路选线方案比选模型 罗圆1, 姚令侃1,2,3, 朱颖4，杨明1,2 (1.西南交通大学土木工程学院，四川 成都 610031；2.抗震工程技术四川省重点实验室道路与铁道工程抗震技术研究所，四川 成都 610031；3.高速铁路线路工程教育部重点实验室，四川 成都 610031；4.中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司，四川 成都 610031） 摘 要: 宏观经济形势和国家财政货币政策会影响对铁路建设项目的投资及实际的客货运量，但目前的选线设计方案评价方法中尚未考虑到这些宏观因素变化可能带来的风险。本文引入效用理论和多属性决策中的投影方法， 针对既有定量指标又含定性指标的选线方案比选决策问题，首先将定性指标转化为区间数，然后分别定义定量指标和区间数的效用函数，最后利用投影法通过外部环境影响因子的选择实现不同的外部经济环境条件下选择与其对应最优的线路方案。并且通过一个具体的选线决策实例说明了模型的有效性和实用性。从而克服了传统模型的不足，为解决受到宏观经济形势和财政货币政策影响下的铁路选线设计的方案比选问题提供了一种新评价方法。 关键词: 宏观经济；铁路选线设计；方案比选；效用函数；投影 中图分类号：U212.32: F532.8 文献标志码：A A Optimal Selection Model of Variant Projects in Railway Location Based on Utility Theory LUO Yuan1, YAO Lingkan1,2,3, ZHU Ying4, YANG Ming1,2 ( 1. School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610031, China; 2. Road and Railway Engineering Research Institute, Sichuan Key Laboratory of Seismic Engineering and Technology, Chengdu 610031, China; 3.MOE Key Laboratory of High-speed Railway Engineering, Chengdu , 610031, China; 4. Center of Science and Technology, China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group, Chengdu, 610031, China ) Abstract: The macroeconomic situation and national fiscal policies can affect investment in railway construction and the passenger and freight volume. However, the current scheme evaluation method has not take into account the potential risk brought by these macroeconomic factors. For scheme optimization problems in railway location design with qualitative and quantitative indicators, this paper introduces utility theory and the projection method. Firstly, transform quantitative indicators into interval numbers, then define utility functions of qualitative indicators and interval numbers respectively. Lastly, the projection method is used to choose different schemes under different external environmental conditions through a external environmental impact factor and an example is also illustrated to show the effectiveness and practicality of the model. Therefore, it pr