百万立方米折合原木材积-ForestTrends.pptVIP

* * Hardwood pulpwood. Interesting issue. Under normal circumstances, it is not economical to import pulpwood – it has high water content and is thus heavy and expensive to ship. Cannot compete against the integrated pulpmills of South America. China’s pulpwood imports appear to be specifically for the APP and APRIL pulpmills in China which were constructed without an adequate local wood supply. So they have to import to make up for overcapacity. Majority comes from Vietnam eucalyptus plantations. Do not know whether the Indonesian pulpwood is from plantations or natural forests. * * * A few seminal events in 2007 Russia tax code (Gary’s stuff) VAT Export tax rebates, export duties eliminated Europe / N American demand changing? Bad winter storms of 2007 Major pulp factories Currency appreciation Diversification to other emerging markets * * 2008 export imports to rise because of severe damage caused to Chinese domestic forests by winter storms * * Russian log export tax may or may not have had an impact here: Rush to export logs before taxes are raised even further? Or did it decrease the volume of log exports from what it would have been otherwise. Did see a 35% increase in Russia lumber imported to China. * * Effect of log export tax Do we have monthly data? 1st Q 2008? Anything from Gary’s paper? I didn’t know which graphs from Gary’s paper to include out of the 3 scenarios – I included the charts from the paper for you to consider in a separate excel file. * Logs not on here – but Malaysian logs also down. Malaysian lumber insignificant, and MY plywood and veneers also down. Can we assume that Indonesian wood exports – either directly or via Malaysia – are no longer going to China? Are they going to Vietnam? * * * * VAT export tax rebate – decreased but didn’t decrease growth (but perhaps rate of growth) * * US has stayed level – impacts of economic downturn decreasing buying power of the US dollar. Plywood down especially, but not furniture. Paper up