第二章 计划与决策要点.pptVIP

* As a prestige grading, position, or rank within a group, status can be a powerful motivator to an individual if he perceives that others do not share his personal impression of his status. Status may be informally conferred because of education, age, skill, or experience. But, it is important for workers to believe that the organization’s formal status system is congruent; that is, an equity between the perceived ranking of an individual and his or her “status symbols.” Large groups with a dozen or more members are good for gaining diverse input; but, groups of about seven members are more effective for taking action. As groups get incrementally larger, the contribution of individual members lessens. For example, while total productivity in a group of four is greater than in a group of two, individual productivity declines. The reason for this decline may be social loafing: the tendency for individuals to expend less energy when working collectively than working individually. The idea of social loafing challenges some stereotypes: that team spirit engenders individual effort and enhances productivity, and that group productivity should at least equal the sum of the productivity of the individual group members. Therefore, managers who use collective work situations to enhance morale and promote teamwork must also identify individual efforts. * * 非确定型问题的定量决策方法Non-deterministic Quantitative Decision Technology 管理学教程2-* 选择活动方案的 评价方法 不确定型决策 确定型决策 风险型决策 几个决策问题的例子 (1) 买股票问题 小P最近手头有点闲钱，计划进军股市，到底应该选择哪一支股票呢？ 加工方法问题 制造商承接订单加工新产品，要安排加工工具。新产品的加工有两种方法，一种是用现成的通用设备，加工能力较差且劳务成本较高；一种是购置专用设备，加工能力较强且劳务成本低。若今后新产品的需求量大，购置专用设备比采用通用设备好，需求量小时采用通用设备比购置专用设备好。问题是新产品在今后的需求量并不十分确定。 * (一)不确定型决策方法 指各种备选方案的自然状态有若干种，但每种自然状态发生的概率无法估计 1.小中取大法 2.大中取大法 3.最小最大后悔值法(大中取小) * 悲观法（小中取大法） 项目 销路好 销路一般 销路差 改进生产线 180 120 -40 新建生产线 240 100 -80 外包生产线 100 70 16 * 悲观法（小中取大法） 项目 销路好 销路一般 销路差 改进生产线 180 120 -40 新建生产线 240 100 -80 外包生产线 100 70 16 * 乐观法（大中取大法） 项目 销路好 销路一般 销路差 改进生产线