对外贸易分析.docVIP

我国对外贸易与经济发展的关系  摘 要 自1978年改革开放以来我国对外管理体制进行了一系列卓而有效地改革。这给我国的国民经济带来了翻天覆地的变化，造就了我国经济和对外贸易增长的奇迹。我国国民经济迅速的发展，一直有着“投资打头、出口依赖”的特点，对外经济贸易的进出口增长率一直领先于国内生产总值的增长率。在当今世界几乎没有一个国家能够闭关锁国而取得经济的快速发展，发展对外经济贸易对任何国家的国民经济都显得非常重要，因此研究我国进出口贸易与经济增长的相互关系和对外贸易能否促进一国经济的增长等都是人们进行理论和实践研究的焦点之一。 本文运用Eviews与SPSS统计软件对我国在1990－2007年进出口贸易总额、差额，国内生产总值的数据进行分析。我国的对外贸易处于战略地位。近些年来对外贸易的依存度也保持在较高水平。我国的对外贸易以以前的以进口为主导型正在逐步的向以出口为主导型的方向转变。与此同时，我国的出口品正在由粗放型的依靠初级产品为出口主导型的方式向含有高科技含量的工业品转换，实现了质的转变。针对我们分析得到的结论结合现状提出相关促使贸易平衡的意见，为我国进出口贸易进一步促进国内经济发展提出建议。 关键词 进出口贸易；国内生产总值（GDP）；相关系数；统计分析 ABSTRACT Since the reform and opening in 1978, Chinese foreign management system has made a series of eminent and effective reform. This brings earth-shaking changes to our national economy, and makes a miracle of our national economic and foreign trade. The rapid development of national economy in China, has a feature that “invests the drivehead, the export dependence”, the economic growth of import and export of foreign trade has been leading to GDP growth. In todays world, a country can hardly develop in the atmosphere of national seclusion, development of foreign trade economy is very important to every country, so researching of the relationship between our import and export trade and economic growth and whether foreign trade can promote economic growth are focus of research on theory and practice. This paper used the statistics softwares named Eviews and SPSS to analysis the total amount and balance of import-export trade from 1990 to 2007, and GDP data. Chinese foreign trade is at the strategic position. In recent years,the foreign trade degree of dependency also maintains at the high level. Our countrys foreign trade by beforehand take imports as the leading foreign trade is gradual changing to take exports as the leading direction. Meanwhile, The lending way of Chinese exports are changing from by extensive rely on primary products to contain the high-tech content, realize the q