Dynamic Consumption Behavior Evidence from Japanese日本动态消费行为的证据.pptVIP

Dynamic Consumption Behavior:Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data Yukinobu Kitamura Hitotsubashi University Institute of Economic Research August 5, 2005 1. Plan of my talk Family Income and Expenditure Survey 2001-2002 Dynamic Consumption Behavior Durability of Consumption Liqudity Constraints 2 　Durability of Consumption Hayashi (1997, chapter5) shows the relationship between expenditure xijt and consumption cij. Consumption is a flow from accumulated expenditure in the past. (1) where i is the agent, j is consumption good or item, t is time, M is a certain time dimension. However, expenditures on individual goods xijt are ex- pressed as the flow of current and future consumption cijt+n such that, (2) 3 Liquidity Constraints Households with debt. Although these households may not borrow as much as they wish, they may not have had faced with liquidity constraints in the past. Households without debt and seemingly without liquidity constraints. They can borrow as much as they like but in fact they do not borrow. Households without debt and seemingly with liquidity constraints. They may face with liquidity constraints at the moment. Distinction between 1. and 2.3. can be made according to debt information at hand. Distinction between 2. and 3. requires some assumptions to draw lines according to annual income and net savings. 4 Empirical Model Consumption function in empirical analysis is defined such that, (3) where con=log of real consumption, disp=log of real disposable income, vt=monthly dummy. The expenditure model is to convert consumption con into expenditure x. (4) Empirical Results AR(1) regression, coefficients of food, housing, traffic and telecommunication, recreation exceed 0.5. There seem to exist habit formation or sticky consumption. On the other hand, coefficients of furniture, clothes, medical expenditure, education are less than 0.2, habit formation does not exist for these items. AR(4) regr