Ex 1 Grey heron例1苍鹭.pptVIP

Ex.1: Grey heron Ex. 1: Grey heron Patch Occupancy Dynamics: Estimation and Modeling Using “Presence-absence” Data Patch Occupancy: The Problem Conduct “presence-absence” (detection-nondetection) surveys Estimate what fraction of sites (or area) is occupied by a species when species is not always detected with certainty, even when present (p 1) Patch Occupancy: Motivation Extensive monitoring programs Incidence functions and metapopulations Disease modeling Surveys of geographic range and temporal changes in range Key Design Issue: Replication *Temporal replication: repeat visits to sample units Spatial replication: randomly selected subsample units within each sample unit Replicate visits occur within a relatively short period of time (e.g., a breeding season) Data Summary: Detection Histories A detection history for each visited site or sample unit 1 denotes detection 0 denotes nondetection Example detection history: 1 0 0 1 Denotes 4 visits to site Detection at visits 1 and 4 Model Parameters and Assumptions Model Parameters and Assumptions A Probabilistic Model Pr(detection history 1001) = A Probabilistic Model The combination of these statements forms the model likelihood Maximum likelihood estimates of parameters can be obtained However, parameters cannot be site specific without additional information (covariates) Suggest non-parametric bootstrap be used to estimate SE Software Windows-based software: Program PRESENCE (Darryl MacKenzie) Program MARK (Gary White) Fit both predefined and custom models, with or without covariates Provide maximum likelihood estimates of parameters and associated standard errors Assess model fit Example: Anurans at Maryland Wetlands (Droege and Lachman) FrogwatchUSA (NWF/USGS) Volunteers surveyed sites for 3-minute periods after sundown on multiple nights 29 wetland sites; piedmont and coastal plain 27 Feb. – 30 May, 2000 Covariates: Sites: habitat ([pond, lake] or [swamp, marsh, wet meadow]) Sampling occasion: air te