Exploring the Value of Prediction in an Artificial Stock预测人工股票的价值.pptVIP

Exploring the Value of Prediction in an Artificial Stock预测人工股票的价值.ppt

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Constructivism -v- Realism Is knowledge a reflection of an outside reality or constructed by us? MRes Philosophy of Knowledge: Session 3 (slides available at /mres) Part 1: Some Key Ideas 3 Layers of the World? The Real The mechanisms, powers, tendencies etc. which science seeks to discover The Actual Flows or sequences of events which may be produced in experiments or elsewhere (presumably as a result of the real) The Observable That part of the actual which happens to be observed Realism A strong form: there is an objective reality independent of the observer and theories directly reflect this An intermediate form: there is an objective reality independent of the observer and theories approximate this and are improved over time A weak form: there is an objective reality in which the observer participates and theories capture what is observable of this Some reasons to be a realist Some theories make novel and surprising predictions that turn out to be correct Realist scientists have produced a lot of knowledge that is undoubtably useful It is often sensible to assume things are objectively and independently real Even very abstract and seemingly theoretical entities are systematically manipulated to obrtain intended results The Process of a Science? Constructivism Theories/knowledge about the world are constructed by us in a creative process Thus there is (at least some degree of) choice or contingency about our knowledge Reasons for this might include: Observations are insufficient to uniquely determine theory We can only deal with knowledge through a framework which gives it form (language) There is no separate objective reality Some reasons to be a constructivist Many theoretical entities have turned out to be incorrect (even though the models are approximately correct in many aspects) In retrospect we can see the biasing effect of culture, assumptions, language etc. Theories are rarely constrained down to uniqueness by the evidence Doing science involves being

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