气候变化下我国主要农作物需变化气候变化下我国主要农作物需水变化气候变化下我国主要农作物需水变化气候变化下我国主要农作物需水变化.doc

气候变化下我国主要农作物需水变化 蔡超 任华堂 夏建新 作者：蔡超 任华堂 夏建新 摘要: 全球气候变化不可避免的会给农业用水带来影响。利用全国93 个气象站1960-2009 年的气候资料，分析全国近50 年4 种主要粮食作物(玉米、小麦、大豆、水稻) 的蓝水蒸散量及年蓝水需水量的分布和变化。结果表明: 1960-2009 年间全国平均温度上升1．1 ℃，1980s 以后气候变暖加剧，增幅北方大于南方。农作物蓝水蒸散量有不同程度下降; 1990s 前蓝水蒸散量主要影响因子为降雨量，1990 s 后为温度。气候变化使得东北、内蒙古农作物种植面积增加，农作物蓝水需水量上升。从蓝水蒸散量出发，调整地区间农作物种植结构可以缓解因气候变化给北方地区带来的农业水资源压力。 关键词: 气候变化; 蓝水; 蓝水蒸散量; 农业需水 中图分类号: S162，S271 文献标识码: A 文章编号: 1672-643X(2014) 01-0071-05 Variation of water requirement for main crops in China based on climate change CAI Chao，ＲEN Huatang，XIA Jianxin Abstract: The globe climate change inevitably impacts the use of agricultural water．The distribution and change of blue water evapotranspiration and yearly irrigation water requirement of the four crops(maize，wheat，soybean and rice) in different regions were analyzed by using climate data of 93 meteorological stations in China from 1960 to 2009．The results show that annual average temperature increased by 1．1 ℃ from 1960 to 2009 in China．Northern China is warming faster than southern China，and climate warming has aggravated since 1980s．The blue water evapotranspiration of crop decreases at different extent; and the main influence factor of that was precipitation before 1990s，and that has been temperature since 1990s．The crop area of northeast China and Inner Mongolia increases significantly result from climate change，and the blue water requirement in these areas rises as well．The adjustment of crop planting structure between areas can relieve the pressure of agricultural water resources brought by the climate change in north China from the view of blue water evapotranspiration． Key words: climate change; blue water; blue water evapotran spiration; agriculture water 全球气候变化的特征已经越来越明显，其对于“靠天吃饭”的农业影响尤其显著。随着资源紧缺以及粮食安全问题日益突出，气候变化对农业的影响已引起广泛关注［1-4］。而气候变化对于农业用水的影响尤其重要。吴普特等运用干旱指数等研究气候变化对农业用水的影响，认为通过人为因素可以在一定程度上缓解气候变化对农业用水带来的负面影响［5］。黄晶等分析了北京近20 年农业用水的变化，指出气候对农业用水影响的贡献率为17．1%［6］。王小军等讨论了气候变化背景下我国农业用水安全［7］。然而，由于幅员辽阔，气候变化对我国不同区域农作物用水的影响并不完全一致，对农业用水的影响大都局限于