水利工程影响下的历史洪水重现.docVIP

水利工程影响下的历史洪水重现 　　摘要：随着社会经济发展及人口的增加，第二松花江丰满以上流域相继修建了大量水利工程（水库、闸坝、堤防、蓄滞洪区等），大大改变了水流的自然状态，对洪水洪量及过程产生了显著影响。根据水利工程统计资料分析水利工程对洪水的影响规律，将其应用于历史洪水模拟中去，洪水模拟合格率由57%提高到86%。采用TOPMODEL模型建立水利工程运行影响下的洪水重现方法，并将丰满五道沟以上流域历史典型暴雨洪水在当前水利工程条件下重现，对比分析了历史暴雨洪水发生到现在的过程与当年实测过程的变化。研究结果对当前流域防洪有一定借鉴意义。 　　关键词：丰满；水利工程；洪水重现；TOPMODEL模型 　　中图分类号：TV211 文献标志码：A 文章编号2015 　　Historical flood recurrence under the impacts of hydraulic engineering 　　SUN Xinguo1，ZHOU Huicheng1，WU Jian2 　　（1.School of Hydraulic Engineering Dalian University of Technology，Dalian116024；2.Hebei Research 　　Institute of Investigation and Design of Water Conservancy and Hydropower，Tianjin 300250，China） 　　Abstract：With the rapidly economic development and increasing of population，a large number of hydraulic projects，such as reservoirs，levees，flood storage，and flood detention，were built in the upstream of Fengman Reservoir of the second Songhua River Basin，which changed the natural water flow and had significant impacts on the flood discharge and process.In this paper，based on the measured hydraulic engineering data，the impacts of water conservancy engineering on the flood were analyzed and applied to simulate historical flood.The results showed that the qualification rate of flood simulation increases from 57% to 86%.The flood recurrence method under the influence of water conservancy engineering operation was developed using the TOPMODEL model.Under the condition of current water conservancy engineering，this method was used to simulate the recurrence of historical flood in the upstream of Wudaogou in the Fengman Reservoir，which showed the comparison between the historical flood process and measured process.The research results can provide reference for the flood control in the river basin. 　　Key words：Fengman；water conservancy engineering；historical flood recurrence；TOPMODEL 　　河流上水库工程的兴建，改变了水流的天然时程分配，破坏了水文资料的一致性，给传统的水文分析计算带来影响，致使不能反映这一变化的天然状态下的流域洪水预报模型难以满足精度要求[12]。在汛初或前期久旱无雨情况下，降雨后大部分地表径流会被中小水库、塘坝拦蓄，造成