层次分析法在选中股的应用.docVIP

层次分析法在选股中的应用 摘 要:应对当今社会证券投资行业的实际情况来看，由于股票投资存在风险，影响投资方向、方式及对象的因素很多，投资者在选购投资股票对象的时候也就普遍存在盲目跟风、片面简单以及缺乏基础科学数据等问题，随着我国经济的高速增长，股票市场也越来越繁荣。可是在上海和深圳股票市场中，不具备专业知识的散户居多，盲目投资的现象比较严重，从而承担着更大的风险。如何进行证券的投资是值得研究的问题。 本文在对层次分析法的发展现状以及该理论存在的问题综述的基础上，简述了AHP解决问题的基本步骤，并从数学原理角度对AHP中的重要概念——判断矩阵一致性做了较为简单的介绍。 然后通过查阅大量与股票相关的资料和信息，建立股票投资价值影响因素的递阶层次结构；设计调查表向股票投资专家进行调查，建立各因素之间的判断矩阵，求出各因素的排序向量，并对部分股票的投资进行了决策。 本文利用层次分析法的理论对同一板块的股票进行排序，优选出具有较高投资价值的股票，然后再利用有效前沿的理论，将这些股票进行投资组合。旨在使得投资更加合理，达到承担较小的风险，获得较大收益的目的。 关键词:层次分析法；判断矩阵；有效前沿；证券组合；证券投资 Application of AHP in stock market Abstract:With China’s rapid economic growth ,the stock market is also growing more and more prosperous. Yet in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the investors who occupy a great proportion are the retail investors who are in lack of professional knowledge and tend to invest blindly and thus take greater risk. So how to conduct securities investment is an issue worth studying. Based on the comprehensive description of the present situation of AHP and the problems existing in the theory, the basic steps of how to use AHP to solve problems were briefly introduced and from the mathematic principle perspective. a brief introduction Was made on the judgment of the consistency of matrix of the important concepts In AHP. Then by consulting a large amount of stock-related data and information, a hierarchical structure of factors affecting the value of stock investment was established. And questionnaires were designed to investigate the stock investment experts, the judgment matrix among different factors was established, the priority weight vectors of different factors were obtained, and the investment judgment of some of the stocks were made. Using the AHP theory, the present study tries to sort for the shares on the same plate and choose the ones with comparatively high investment value,then makes use of the effective frontier theory to figure out all investment portfolio.The purpose of this is to minimize the risk of investmen