Forecasting Georgia State University乔治亚州立大学预测.pptVIP

Module 4. Forecasting MGS3100 Forecasting Quantitative Forecasting Casual Models: Causal forecasting Regression Find a straight line that fits the data best. y = Intercept + slope * x (= b0 + b1x) Slope = change in y / change in x Causal Forecasting Models Curve Fitting: Simple Linear Regression One Independent Variable (X) is used to predict one Dependent Variable (Y): Y = a + b X Given n observations (Xi, Yi), we can fit a line to the overall pattern of these data points. The Least Squares Method in statistics can give us the best a and b in the sense of minimizing ?(Yi - a - bXi)