Modeling Biocomplexity Actors, Landscapes and Alternative建模的复杂生物演员、风景和替代.pptVIP

Evoland – An Alternative Futuring Tool John Bolte Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering Oregon State University Corvallis, OR USA Alternative Futuring Examine multiple sets of trends and assumptions about future conditions, generally using one of more models of change Generally consists of a synthesis of these assumptions, trends into trajectories of future change Generally involves significant stakeholder interactions to define constraints, trajectories, drivers May involve the use of simulation, decision support tools A Alternative Futuring Tool - Evoland Evoland (Evolving Landscapes) is a tool for conducting alternative futures analyses using: A spatially explicit, GIS-based approach to landscape representation Captures human decision-making through explicit representation of land use/land management policies and actor-based (multiagent-based) approach to policy selection Incorporates autonomous landscape process models for representing non human (natural) landscape change Evoland – Triad of Relationships Evoland – General Structure Evoland Framework Policies in Evoland Describe actions available to actors Primary Characteristics: Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query) Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models) Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and application of the Policy Policies are a fundamental unit of computation in Evoland Example: [Purchase conservations easement to allow revegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [areas with no built structures and high channel migration capacity] when [native fish habitat becomes scarce] Actors in Evoland Fundamentally, actors have decision-making authority over their portion of the landscape Actors have Behaviors that relate to their values (e.g. ecosystem health, economics) Can organize into higher level Associations to influence policy generation, policy selection Based on spatial proximity Based on common behaviors For WRB project, Actors are init