North American Economic Outlook “Gradual though 北美经济前景“逐步”.pptVIP

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North American Economic Outlook “Gradual though 北美经济前景“逐步”.ppt

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North American Economic Outlook “Gradual though 北美经济前景“逐步”

World outlook unsettled by round of weak data World economy spurted out of recession Activity indices signal slower growth Leading indicators say this too Baltic Dry Index Slowing hasn’t shown up in trade volumes yet Exports = support for the global economy Industrial production off the boil but still hot Credit standards have eased – good for trade Central banks are doing whatever is necessary to keep recovery going US economy slowed but didn’t stop in second quarter Transitory factors: most of pop from inventory rebuild is done Transitory factors: Stimulus support coming to an end Expiry of homebuyers tax credit leaves sales pace sluggish Homes are affordable and mortgage rates at all-time lows Starts still at historically low levels, modest gains ahead The job market hasn’t delivered yet Households trying to get finances under control …and rebuilding their nest eggs Spending will remain sluggish Businesses buying ME, not investing in real estate yet Soft domestic demand sets up for more moderate import growth Moderate global recovery supports US export growth Low rates will prevent another dip Price pressures absent and talk of deflation Canada got off to a speedy start Canada’s bump from stimulus will end next year Support from inventory rebuild is waning Financial conditions are still accommodative Spending on capital goods to do heavy lifting for now Strong C$ makes capital goods imports cheaper Canadian exports are in demand Oil prices - historically high but below peak Commodity prices have recovered Export sector recovery faces risk if US falters Canada’s consumer to support recovery Strong employment gains – 94% of jobs lost have been recovered Low rates dampen debt service costs for households Affordability is not as stretched as prior to recession Canada will be a growth leader (outside emerging economies) * Currency being rocked by worries about global recovery * Housing market eases from blistering pace * No worries about inflation * Disclaimer