Predicting Success of Developmental and Core Mathematics预测发展和核心数学的成功.pptVIP

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Predicting Success of Developmental and Core Mathematics预测发展和核心数学的成功.ppt

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Predicting Success of Developmental and Core Mathematics预测发展和核心数学的成功

Using Demographic Data to Predict Students’ Achievement in DSPM Courses Daryl Stephens, ETSU stephen@ TNADE October 27, 2005 Students take developmental studies program (DSP) courses for many reasons: Forgot material learned in high school by the time they took entrance tests Long gap between high school and matriculation Didn’t take high school seriously Didn’t consider going to college until later First generation college student (Salter Noblett, 1994) Most students (~90%) at ETSU take MATH 1530, Probability and Statistics, as their mathematics course to satisfy core curriculum requirements. In previous years, this course had a high failure rate. The Problem Placement procedures for TBR schools have changed. Pre-2000: ACT 19 or age 22 → take AAPP 2000-2002: COMPASS replaces AAPP 2002: ACT score alone determines placement for students with score 3 years old; COMPASS alone for others The Problem State funding is static. Placement decisions based on one test. Enrollment caps may happen in the future. Is there a way to augment the placement process by predicting a student’s chance of success or failure in developmental or core math classes? Purpose Develop models to predict success of students in DSPM 0800 (Elementary Algebra) DSPM 0850 (Intermediate Algebra) MATH 1530 (Probability and Statistics) Use multiple regression to develop the models using readily obtainable information Importance MATH 1530 traditionally had high failure rate Developmental math students are at a greater risk of failure and dropping out Specific developmental studies program advisors done away with in budget crunch of 2003 Importance Previous similar studies on developmental students used additional instruments which cost money. Very few universities require probability and statistics for math credit for graduation. Most similar studies on core math deal with college algebra, precalculus, or math survey courses. Assumptions Prediction is possible Self-reported data are correct Informati