Shades of Gray Ambiguity Tolerance Inferential 灰色模糊度公差与推理.pptVIP

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Shades of Gray Ambiguity Tolerance Inferential 灰色模糊度公差与推理.ppt

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Shades of Gray Ambiguity Tolerance Inferential 灰色模糊度公差与推理

Robert H. Carver Stonehill College/Brandeis University Session ST-18 DSI2007 Phoenix AZ What is Ambiguity Tolerance (AT)? Is it related to the development of statistical reasoning skills? Some empirical findings Methods Results Implications for more effective teaching 20 November 2007 * Frenkel-Brunswik (1948) Some are stimulated by ambiguity, some are threatened Personality trait vs. preferred process Relationship to rigidity, uncertainty tolerance, openness Enduring personality attribute vs. context-dependent 20 November 2007 * 20 November 2007 * “Never, ever, think outside the box” High AT? Low A.T.? AMBIGUITY TOLERANCE When AT is low, people tend to cling to preconceived notions, reluctant to process contrary information STATISTICAL THINKING Drawing actionable conclusions based on incomplete information Methods for incorporating new information with pre-existing assumptions 20 November 2007 * Wild Pfannkuch (1999) 4 dimensions of Statistical Thinking Investigative (PPDAC) Types of thinking (critical, imaginative, transnumerative…) Interrogative (critical assessment of observations) Dispositions (personal styles, qualities) 20 November 2007 * 20 November 2007 * Adapted from Wild Pfannkuch, 1999 Is ambiguity tolerance (AT) a predictor of success in a student’s development of statistical thinking skills? Does AT interact with other success factors? If AT is a predictor of success, can we modify our teaching approaches to anticipate it? 20 November 2007 * Sample: 85 undergraduates enrolled over 2 semesters Differences among sections Technology: Minitab vs. SAS (Learning Ed.) Ordinary, Learning Community, Honors 20 November 2007 * Dependent variable: Score on Comprehensive Assessment of Outcomes for a first course in Statistics (CAOS) post-test Developed by Web ARTIST Project (U.Minnesota and Cal Poly) team Pre- and Post-test (40 items each) Note: some questions are, themselves ambiugous… 20 November 2007 * 20 November 2007 * Independent Measures varia