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Statistics of Illumination Beth Chance Roxy Peck Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo STATISTICS SAY… Increasingly daily life involves statistical information interpretations of graphical and numerical summaries comparisons of groups poll results from random samples conclusions from randomized experiments predictions of future outcomes Most people use statistics as a drunkard uses a lamppost-  Predicting Variable Behavior Predicting Variable Behavior (a) Height of students in this class (b) Students’ preference for coca-cola vs. pepsi-cola (c) Number of siblings of individuals (d) Amount paid for last haircut (e) Gender breakdown (f) Students’ guesses of my age Matching Variables to Graphs Matching Variables to Graphs Think about context! Anticipate patterns and variations variable intuition graph-sense STATISTICS SAY… Students’ heights would show more variability than guesses of my age KDC Pursues High-Return, Low-Risk Strategy What is Variability? What is Variability? Describing Variability The “bumpiness” of a histogram does not determine the variability of the observations The number of distinct values the variable takes does not determine the variability of the observations STATISTICS SAY… 5236 drivers age 65 and over were involved in fatal accidents, compared to only 2900 drivers aged 16 and 17, so young people are safer drivers... 65% of motorcycle fatalities occurred in states with mandatory helmet laws... Counts Versus Ratios Simple counts are often not a good basis for comparison of two or more groups. Group size isn’t always obvious—two groups of 25 U.S. states may have very different sizes even though both include the same number of states. Deciding on a sensible basis for comparison requires thought! STATISTICS SAY… 85% of software developers predicted that Microsofts integration of Internet functions into Windows would help their company Some Simple Questions Question 1 Lost ticket Yes: 6 No: 9 Lost $20 Yes: 8 No: 6 Some Simple Questions People