The guts of a GUT Elements of a Grand Unified Theory 大统一理论中的一种直觉要素的胆量.pptVIP

下载本文档

3
0
约1.95万字
约 67页
2017-03-09 发布于上海
举报
版权申诉

The guts of a GUT Elements of a Grand Unified Theory 大统一理论中的一种直觉要素的胆量.ppt

1、本文档共67页，可阅读全部内容。
2、原创力文档（book118）网站文档一经付费（服务费），不意味着购买了该文档的版权，仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用，不得用于商业用途，未经授权，严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等，侵权必究。
3、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传，本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺！文档内容仅供研究参考，付费前请自行鉴别。如您付费，意味着您自己接受本站规则且自行承担风险，本站不退款、不进行额外附加服务；查看《如何避免下载的几个坑》。如果您已付费下载过本站文档，您可以点击这里二次下载。
4、如文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等，请点击“版权申诉”（推荐），也可以打举报电话：400-050-0827(电话支持时间：9:00-18:30)。
5、该文档为VIP文档，如果想要下载，成为VIP会员后，下载免费。
6、成为VIP后，下载本文档将扣除1次下载权益。下载后，不支持退款、换文档。如有疑问请联系我们。
7、成为VIP后，您将拥有八大权益，权益包括：VIP文档下载权益、阅读免打扰、文档格式转换、高级专利检索、专属身份标志、高级客服、多端互通、版权登记。
8、VIP文档为合作方或网友上传，每下载1次，网站将根据用户上传文档的质量评分、类型等，对文档贡献者给予高额补贴、流量扶持。如果你也想贡献VIP文档。上传文档

The guts of a GUT Elements of a Grand Unified Theory 大统一理论中的一种直觉要素的胆量

The guts of a GUT:Elements of a Grand Unified Theory of Growth Lant Pritchett LACEA November 12th, 2010 Outline of the presentation What is growth theory a theory of? The four facts a growth theory should explain Growth phases and phase transitions versus a single linear equation of motion “Institutions”: general or specific? Equations of motion for “institutions” a la Hirschman: “unbalanced growth” through “backward linkages” in institutions Four Facts about Growth Small group of countries with sustained, non-accelerating, stable growth of 1.8-2.0 ppa producing very high levels of output. Small group of countries very near subsistence (hence long-run growth near zero) Small group of countries with very rapid growth over extended periods Growth rates lack persistence over time—very low correlation of growth from one period to the next—growth is (mostly) an episodic condition (not a characteristic) First Fact: Long-run stability in growth among now leaders The growth rate 1870 to 2003 of the 16 leading countries is 1.89 ppa with std dev across countries of only .33 Predicting US GDP per capita in 2003 using only data from 1870 through 1907 and the simplest possible linear trend in natural logs produces a forecast off by 2 percent ( 29,037 actual versus 28,242 predicted GK 1990 dollars) Median forecast error for 70 year ahead prediction of all leading countries from pre-depression data is 3.9 percent! The median acceleration of these 16 countries from 1890-1915 versus 1980-2003 is only .14 ppa High levels of per capita output produced by moderate, sustained, stable, non-accelerating growth. Long-run stability: example of US (Cover of Jones’s book on growth) Same figure, Denmark Fact II: Small number of countries very near subsistence (hence zero long-run growth) Can infer growth from level if you are willing to assume a minimum level of output—the “Adam and Eve” level The maximum growth could have been over any period is the growth that takes you from “Adam and